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eg) What’s the outlook for US coal production in 2025?
1. Historical and Forecast Supply for Natural Gas
U.S. Marketed Production: In 2024, production remained stable, averaging 103.3 Bcf/d with a peak in February. The forecast for 2025 projects growth to over 104.5Bcf/d, a 1% increase led by a 6% rise in the Permian region and a 5% rise in the Eagle Ford. Conversely, production in the Appalachian Basin and other regions is expected to slightly decline.
Regional Insights:
Permian: Continued production growth, driven by associated natural gas from oil production, particularly amid low gas prices.
Haynesville & Appalachia: Production affected by price lows in early 2024, causing curtailment in these regions until market improvement.
Canadian Imports: Averaged 7.9 Bcf/d in 2024, slightly increasing from 8.2 to 8.6 Bcf/d forecasted in various quarters for 2025.
2. Historical and Forecast Demand for Power Generation
Total Power Generation: Expected 3% growth in 2024 from 2023, supported by industrial sector demand and rising commercial demand, notably from data centers. A further 1% increase is forecasted for 2025.
Fuel Sources:
Natural Gas: Generation to rise by 3% in 2024, followed by a projected 5% decline in 2025 due to higher gas prices and lower demand.
Solar: Projected 34% growth in generation for 2024 and 31% in 2025, with the largest capacity growth in Texas, impacting natural gas demand due to increased battery storage integration.
Coal: Consumption projected to drop, with stockpiles falling from 139 million short tons (MMst) in November 2024 to 131 MMst by December.
3. Historical and Forecast Demand for LNG Feedgas
Current Operations: U.S. LNG exports are expected to grow nearly 2 Bcf/d in 2025, with strong international demand bolstered by expanded U.S. export capacity.
4. Natural Gas Storage Levels
End-of-March and End-of-October Levels:
March 2024: Projected end-of-winter storage at 2,306 Bcf.
October 2024: Forecasted end-of-summer storage at 3,615 Bcf, which would be about 6% above the 2019-2023 average levels.
5. Infrastructure Developments
Pipelines & LNG Projects: The report highlights ongoing and anticipated expansions in U.S. LNG export capacity, supporting increased feedgas demand for 2025. These infrastructure investments are critical for meeting international LNG demand.
6. Historical and Forecast Natural Gas Prices
Henry Hub Spot Price:
2023 Average: $2.26/MMBtu.
2024 Projection: Averages $2.20/MMBtu, reflecting a 4% drop from October's average due to high storage levels.
2025 Forecast: Expected to increase to $2.90/MMBtu due to rising LNG export demand